ARIMA (AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE) MODELI ASOSIDA O‘ZBEKISTON YAIM KO‘RSATKICHINI BASHORAT QILISH
Kalit so'zlar
https://doi.org/10.47390/ts-v3i5y2025N5Kalit so'zlar
YaIM prognozi, ARIMA modeli, O‘zbekiston iqtisodiyoti, iqtisodiy siyosat, vaqt qatori tahlili, iqtisodiy rejalashtirishAnnotasiya
Ushbu maqolada O‘zbekiston yalpi ichki mahsuloti (YaIM)ni 2025–2030-yillar davri uchun prognoz qilishda ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) modelidan foydalanilgan. YaIM – bu mamlakat ichida ishlab chiqarilgan barcha mahsulot va xizmatlarning pulda ifodalangan umumiy qiymatini aks ettiruvchi muhim iqtisodiy ko‘rsatkichdir. Tadqiqotda YaIMni prognoz qilish siyosiy qarorlar qabul qilish, resurslarni taqsimlash va investitsiya rejalashtirishda katta ahamiyat kasb etishi ta’kidlanadi. Natijalar O‘zbekiston YaIMida umumiy o‘sish tendensiyasi mavjudligini, biroq ba’zan nomuntazam o‘zgarishlar kuzatilishini ko‘rsatadi. ARIMA modeli prognozlashda yuqori aniqlikka ega bo‘lib, tarixiy ma’lumotlar va hozirgi iqtisodiy islohotlar bilan mos keladi. Shu bilan birga, tadqiqotda tashqi omillarni ham inobatga oluvchi gibrid yondashuvlar yordamida modelni yanada takomillashtirish imkoniyati mavjudligi ko‘rsatilgan
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