APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT TECHNOLOGY IN PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47390/ts-v4i3y2026N07Keywords:
foresight, probabilistic risk, risk assessment, occupational safety, scenario analysis, expert evaluation.Abstract
The article analyzes the importance of foresight technology in probabilistic risk assessment within industrial and organizational systems. Foresight technology is considered a modern scientific and analytical approach that allows the early identification of potential hazards, forecasting of their development trends, and the development of preventive measures to avoid accidents and occupational incidents. The study examines the main foresight methods, including expert assessment, the Delphi method, scenario analysis, trend analysis, technology roadmapping, and horizon scanning. These methods make it possible to systematically evaluate the influence of human factors, technological processes, and organizational conditions on the level of occupational risks. The research results indicate that in the short term risks are mainly related to ergonomic and technological errors that may cause minor operational incidents. In the medium term, musculoskeletal and psychological problems begin to emerge, including increased stress and sleep disturbances. In the long term, chronic diseases, burnout syndrome, and professional fatigue may develop, while issues related to information security may also intensify. Therefore, a systematic approach to risk assessment that considers the time factor is essential for effective risk management and prevention. Integrating foresight technologies into occupational health and safety systems not only facilitates the identification and assessment of risks but also contributes to their prevention, the creation of safer working conditions, and the improvement of overall organizational performance.
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